themusingsoffritz: 6/28/09

Well dear reader, what might 100 stand for? Well you might have guessed it already. Yes this post is my 100th post on this blog. 100 times I was bothering you in the hope that you read what I thought might be of interest to you. 100 seems a lot and it indeed is. This means 100 times many hours reading as much as possible in order to collect all the important information that I feel would be worthy of your consideration. Well dear reader, I must admit, that these 100 times the information on my blog lately has rather been on the negative side. Sorry about that. I am really not looking for negative information at all. Personally, although it might not always seem so, I love positive information. Well maybe I should have started earlier with my blog so that I would have had more opportunities to write about positive stuff or information that "looked positive" at the time. Since I started this blog, first on a monthly basis and later more or less on a weekly basis, the economic situation got into such a stress that I was almost obliged to report more about negative happenings than positive ones. The only positive thing that was like a company for the time I was posting was in fact gold. In some way the golden line. With a few exceptions, like whenever the cartel attacked gold and was able to push the price down for a couple of weeks, gold indeed was the item that allowed me to put a rather positive note to my posts. My guess is that gold will go on being the item that helps me to put some positive news in my posts. Of course there will be attacks from the cartel and gold and silver prices will go down from time to time. Hey it might not be to the liking of all of the readers but I must say even that is positive as it will allow many to acquire gold at lower prices. Buy on dips!!

Well dear reader you might ask yourself why do I spend so many hours researching and of course writing, editing and so on.

Well first of all I truly believe that it is important that this information, that normally cannot be found in the mean stream media, reaches as many people as possible. I do truly hope that my work, collecting the information and from time to time giving you my opinion, does help you to make good investment decisions. In that sense it is your feedback, dear reader, that makes me go on with my work. Thank you for the time you take to read my work. Without readers, the time spent would be useless. Thank you as well for the feedbacks I have received many times. Of course thank you as well to all I met personally and challenged my opinions and point of view. This is important for me because this gives me inspirations for future musings. The more I know about my readers concerns, the better I can adapt the information to the needs of my readers.

Well dear reader, such a milestone is always a moment to look back. In that sense I’d like to let you know which of my posts I liked most and give the reason for being so.

1. The post that I believe has the most important information was the post about the Kontradieff cycle (http://themusingsoffritz.blogspot.com/2007_12_23_archive.html)
2. The post or posts I liked very much were all the posts I wrote during our family’s trip to Dubai, Bangkok, Australia, New Zealand and Singapore. Why? Well because in each of these locations I came across information that seemed important. For example in Dubai I realized quickly that the construction boom going on at that time possible will end soon. In New Zealand I was able to talk about volcanic activity, gold panning, black swans and so on. In Sidney I saw everywhere adds about gold and oil with a text that could have been my words. Pictures of these adds were included in one of my posts. Bangkok, another city visited, gave me the opportunity to muse about agriculture. Well such a trip is certainly worth doing it.
3. The post where I personally felt like having been kissed most by the muse was the post about partying and the party or orgy of financial markets being close to stop (http://themusingsoffritz.blogspot.com/2008_07_20_archive.html#180182857400444999)
4. Another post that I liked was the one with the title DJI 50,000 in less than 5 years. I know many of you were surprised to read 50,000, especially as you already knew that I was negative for the stock market. Well the point I wanted to draw your attention to was, that 50,000 in fact does not mean anything. Yes the DJI can go to 50,000 however the important question is how much can you buy with the value of the stocks represented in the DJI. It could very well mean that with a DJI at 50,000 you might not be able to buy the same quantity of goods as today with a DOW at approximately 8500. Inflation or hyperinflation that will start soon (with all the money Central Banks are printing) will have its impact if you like or not. (http://themusingsoffritz.blogspot.com/2007_09_09_archive.html#881613227756545948)
5. Another I liked was my recent post with the message DJI 9,000. Well at that point we were close to 6,000 and in fact a couple of days later we got close to 9,000. Well my guess is that soon we will see a DOW below the 5,000 mark.

Well dear reader although sometime it might sound a bit exaggerated, I made many calls over the past years, that unfortunately (in most cases) or fortunately (in a few cases) showed to be correct. The positive cases are certainly gold where I told everybody back in 2001 that we will see a gold price above 1,000 relatively soon. My calls on oil and natural gas were on the positive side to. The calls that showed to be correct and I must say unfortunately so, were the warnings about the coming derivative disaster, problems with banks, (Lehman, Bear Stearns, Citibank, Bank of America, and others) future problems with GM, Fannie, Freddie and GE (yes GE as well, although this problem is not out of the bottle yet). More in this category were the warnings about the hedge funds to fail, which unfortunately was the case last year.

What does worry me today? Well the list is still long
1. the banking crisis is not over yet (most banks are already today insolvent)
2. coming declaration of banking holidays in 2009
3. a possible derivative failure, possibly this fall
4. not having touched the lowest point yet in this correction (my guess is that we will go much further down)
5. the Quantitative Easing of almost all Central Banks
6. managed events in order to draw attention away from the economic disaster (A forced and managed pandemic, such as the swine flue come to mind. It seems that keeping the people scared continues to work well for those who want to draw the attention away from the real problems)

Well dear reader most probably the above topics will be topics of future musings (sorry again for the rather negative outlook).

Although this outlook does not seem optimistic, I still feel like opening a bottle of champagne and celebrate for myself the 100 milestone.