Recently I was reading an essay about China and their effort to improve/establish infrastructure. On one side there are millions of people moving from the countryside to the cities. All these people need housing, electricity and so on. On the other side China is trying everything to keep these people away from moving to the cities. In order to do so, they are building new highways and railways to connect much more places. With the need to do a lot of work regarding infrastructure and the need for commodities to do so, one can assume that China still will have an important impact on global economy. To give you an idea of China's plans to improve the infrastructure here some facts announced a few weeks ago. Until 2010, China intends to expand it's railroad system with 10,500 miles (a 23% increase in railroad system) which means a massive amount of steel and other commodities, furthermore they announced to complete a 6,500 km pipeline until 2010, which will need a massive amount of stainless steel, nickel and Moly. If one takes into account that China is actually building power plants at a rate of two a week (5 times the rate of the US) with the respective power connection one can easily see that China will go on using and needing lot's of commodities. I believe it safe to assume that China, who already is the biggest Copper consumer, will go on demanding a lot of Copper and possibly grow their demand year by year by more than 10%. Furthermore I believe it safe to assume that their demand for all commodities will stay high. These commodities are not only industrial metals but as well oil, coal and other energy related commodities.
Having a slow down in construction in the US (although the masters of bogus statistics make us believe it is not yet the case) and thus in some way having less demand for commodities out of the US, I strongly believe that that will not have an impact on global demand for commodities. The pressure China has to build, develop and improve their infrastructure will result in such a high demand for commodities that the lesser demand out of the US will not be noticed at all.
Please have a look at my previous post about the physical stockpiles. These very low stockpiles will not go up soon as the demand for metals will stay high and finding new reserves is not easy at all, not to speak about putting them online.
as a reference to the growth of infrastructure in China, please see as well essay on below web link
http://energybulletin.net/30384.html
Friday, June 1, 2007
Thursday, May 31, 2007
Private Equity Funds
There are certainly many excellent Private Equity Funds with excellent past and possibly future results. However I do see that we are reaching a kind of Peak and I see some strong exaggerations in the way some Private Equity Funds do behave. If you intend to invest in Private Equity, I recommend to analyse well what the investment targets of the fund are. Personally I like Private Equity funds that are investing in future trends, such as renewable energy, water and so on. I certainly do not like the ones that take huge amounts of credit and leverage to buy already too expensive companies in the hope to milk them fast and sell it later to some fools that believe it still will be a good investment.
Please read below article talking about the debt risk grow in Private Equity
http://www.reuters.com/article/reutersEdge/idUSN2320609120070529
Please read below article talking about the debt risk grow in Private Equity
http://www.reuters.com/article/reutersEdge/idUSN2320609120070529
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